Tag Archives: gas

Business/Economics, International, Opinion, Technology

Government Incompetence: More than 80% of Japan’s nuclear reactors to be shut down, get ready for petroleum & coal prices to spike

Combine natural disasters, corporate and government incompetence, and regular inspections, and you end up with more than 80% of Japan’s nuclear power turned off.  That’s disastrous when you realize that Japan’s industries rely on nuclear power!  Can you say poor planning?

On November 25, another nuke plant will be shut down for regular inspection.  But that’s not all.  The remaining operating nuclear power plants will also be shut down going into spring 2012, because of the timing of scheduled inspections.  That means all 54 Japanese nuke plants will be off line!

This means there will be a huge demand coming from Japan for petroleum (oil, gasoline, diesel), natural gas and coal to run traditional electrical generators.  Now imagine what will happen to the price such commodities when an entire country suddenly starts sucking up millions of barrels of fuel per day!

Business/Economics, Idaho, U.S.

Occupy America: Gasoline vs Diesel prices, East Idaho gas prices drop while diesel remains the same. International demand means bad news for diesel users

As of November 5, 2011, some of the fuel stations in the Pocatello/Chubbuck area had dropped their gas prices to $3.29 per gallon.  Yet diesel prices remain unchanged, still between $3.99 & $4.09 per gallon.  Local gasoline prices had been falling steady for more than a week now, diesel has not.

fredmeyer november 5 2011

Fred Meyer, Pocatello, Idaho

According to indexmundi diesel commodity prices have been falling ever since prices peaked in July, 2011.  August saw a 5% drop, and September saw another 1% drop.  In September the average daily commodity (New York Harbor Ultra-Low Sulfur No 2 Diesel Spot) price for diesel was $2.98 per gallon.

phillips66

Phillips 66, near Kmart, Pocatello, Idaho

For those of you who continue to believe it has something to do with low sulfur refining, let me remind you that the commodity price is for already refined diesel.

Indexmundi also reports that refined gasoline commodity prices have been falling, also since their peak in July.  Gas (New York Harbor Conventional Gasoline Regular Spot) has actually been falling more then diesel: August saw a 6% drop, September a 2% drop.  The average daily commodity price for gasoline in September was $2.77.

Interestingly, The Associated Press reported in October that wholesale fuel prices went up, which contradicts the indexmundi web site.

Here’s the bad news for diesel users: When we look at the latest November commodity prices diesel has actually gone up; $3.06 as of November 1, versus gasoline commodity prices which were only $2.7o per gallon.

This might explain why diesel pump prices haven’t dropped, and why gasoline pump prices should continue to drop (unless you’re living in an area of the U.S. that’s actually seeing gas prices go up).  The latest diesel commodity prices also indicate that pump prices will probably go up.

In a quick survey of international news stories, it seems diesel prices are going up because of growing demand around the world.

In the Indian state of Manipur, an economic blockade has caused fuel prices to jump by four times, since the blockade started on August 1.  Basically there are people in Manipur that are seeking independence from India.

The Indian government controls the price of fuel in the country (it’s part of how the Indian government generates revenue for itself, and they’re hurting for more revenue), and is trying to hold off on raising diesel prices anymore: “It is always difficult to raise diesel prices as it is widely used by farm sector and industry for transportation. It is not perceived as a luxury fuel.”-Victor Shum, Purvin & Gertz.

On October 25, Reuters reported that China’s busy economy will drive diesel prices upward, and that fuel producers can’t keep up: “In the last 12 months China’s demand for diesel for power generation has been one of the major drivers (of the market). They do tend to step in and stockpile. We are not seeing any significant squeezes yet but this is a supply side story, if we carry on with this current trend we will have some problems in the light, sweet products.  I don’t believe supply can keep pace.“-Tony Hall, Duet Commodities Fund

Don’t forget that Japan has seen half its nuclear power plants shut down since the March 11 disasters.  Japan was almost totally dependent on nuclear power, now they are switching to other forms of generating electricity, and that includes diesel powered generators.

In South Korea demand for fuel, including diesel, has skyrocketed, and the government has approved the opening of 1,300 new fuel stations!  Ironically the South Korean government thinks by opening more fuel stations (thereby increasing demand) they can provide cheaper fuel: “Nonghyup and the KNOC [both government controlled companies] will jointly buy fuel from local refiners or from abroad, so they can be sold to the thrift gas stations. Prices will be kept down further by the gas stations operating on a self-service basis, where the driver fills his or her car.”-South Korean government statement

Another reason for an increase in diesel prices is that petroleum supplies are falling behind.

There is a problem with a refinery in Indeni, Zambia.  The refinery can not meet current standards of fuel refining, and needs U.S.$40 million to become compliant.

In Mexico, oil production has dropped.  In September oil production was 2.863 million barrels per day, the lowest levels since October 1995!

In fact around the world oil production dropped by 7% in September.  More specifically, diesel fuel production dropped by 12.7%!

In an earlier posting I explained how decreased gasoline production was the real reason for gas pump prices going up, now it’s diesel.

Like I said, bad news for diesel fuel users.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Business/Economics, International, U.S.

War on Terror cover for Global Economic War: Invasion of Afghanistan IS about oil, Afghanistan has 80 million barrels of oil, now it all goes to China

State-owned China National Petroleum Corporation won the first oil and natural gas exploration contracts in Afghanistan since the U.S. led invasion in 2001.

It’s estimated that there are 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil in Afghanistan.  The oil fields of Bazarkhami, Kashkari and Zamarudsay (areas under contract with CNPC) contain an estimated 80 million barrels.

In 2007 China got the rights to mine copper in Afghanistan.  Isn’t nice that the U.S. led War on Terror is allowing other countries to get contracts to mine minerals and oil?

Business/Economics, International, Technology

Mazda claims new Mazda 2 blows away hybrids in fuel economy

Mazda announced that their latest generation Demio (aka Mazda 2) gets much better fuel economy than hybrids.  That mean no more expensive batteries to replace.

The Demio’s engine has uniquely shaped pistons to increase combustion efficiency, and, it has a computer that will shut off the engine when it’s idling beyond a certain time limit.

The Idling Stop System will automatically start the engine when you’re ready to go.

Mazda’s Chief Executive, Takashi Yamanouchi, says how well the car sells will determine the future of car design for Mazda.  He hopes that all Mazda cars will be produced with similar technology within five years.  No word on if the new gas saving Demio (Mazda 2) will be sold in the United States.

Business/Economics, U.S.

U.S. Gas prices will be about $4.50 average by end of May

The price of May reformulated unleaded blendstock gasoline futures prices hit $3.37 per gallon, on April 29.  That means the average price of gas at the pump could be $4.50 by the end of May.

For some parts of the country, like California, prices could hit $5.50 or more, per gallon.  For a little explainer on gasoline futures see my post “Think gas is high now…”

Business/Economics, International, Opinion

World’s largest oil producer, Russia, halts fuel exports, could drive up gas prices

Russia has stopped exporting refined fuel, officially to deal with fuel shortages in Russia.

Russian officials hope the export ban will last  only through May, but after that Russia will increase to costs of exporting their fuel.  In any event, this move by Russia should add to the increasing fuel prices the world is paying.

I can’t help wonder if Russian leaders are taking advantage of a domestic situation to make things worse for the West, in retaliation for what the West is doing in Libya, and what the West is trying to do in Syria.

 

 

Business/Economics, U.S.

Think gas is high now, wait ’till May. Or: How you can predict next month’s gas prices

Unleaded gasoline is traded on the commodity market.  That’s the price you need to watch.  Oil prices only affect gas prices indirectly.  Yes, as oil prices go up so will eventually gas prices, but for a direct cause watch refined unleaded gas prices (if you use Diesel watch Diesel futures prices).

Oil and gas are traded in the commodities markets as “futures”.  That because they are being bought in advance.  Example: Today’s unleaded gas “futures”, being sold in the commodities market, is for May “deliveries”.  So today’s “market” price of gas is actually for gas that will be sold at gas stations in the month of May.

What is today’s market price for gas? As of April 20, the closing price was $3.25 per gallon.  That price is not paid for by the gas station you get your gas from (and evil “speculators” looking to make fast profits).  It’s the price paid by the companies who supply it to the gas stations.  Of course they need to make a profit, so they’re going to charge the gas stations more.  This is why gas station owners, especially the independents, says they make only a few cents profit on every gallon.

Now, to explain how you can predict next month’s gas prices.

On April 18, the average “retail” price of gas at the pump, in the United States, was $3.84.   The April “futures” price was, on March 21, $2.98 per gallon.  That’s almost a full dollar difference.  You can see that’s not much of a profit split between the gas stations, and the gas suppliers.  But you can also predict how much we’re going to be paying in May.  It’s not good.

Current May “futures” are around $3.25 per gallon.  Add about a dollar for profit and you can see that average “retail” price at the pump, in May, is going to be around $4.25.  Ain’t no trick to it, just stop paying attention to the stock markets, and start paying attention to commodity markets.  What ever is the “future” price of gas that day, just add about a dollar to it to estimate what you’ll be paying at the pump in the next month.  This also applies to Diesel prices.  Also, if you live in the evil state of California, your prices are going to be much higher, due to federal, outrageous state, and even outrageous local gas taxes.  You might as well add at least two dollars onto the commodity market price of gas.

Business/Economics, Opinion

Ignore the Stock Market, it’s the Commodities Market that hits you in your wallet

The main stream media puts so much effort into reporting what happens in the stock markets.  Why?  Because the main stream media is controlled by big corporations.  Big corporations get investment money from stocks.  Big corporations use the main stream media to control the stock markets.

So you got money in your 401k, so what?  That’s for retirement, if you don’t lose it all in the next crash.  But on a day to day, affect your wallet right now kind of way, the stock markets don’t mean squat.   When you go to buy fuel for your car, or buy food for your family, or clothes, or anything, it’s the commodity markets you should be paying attention to.

Commodities affect every thing you buy; gas, food, household goods, a new car, new clothes.  Every basic resource is traded in the commodities markets; from oil to trees to metal, to all kinds of crops and livestock.  It could be that the main stream media’s focus on the stock markets is just a way of distracting the general public from the market that is really controlling everyday prices (or the main stream media is just ignorant).

Unless your an executive in a big corporation, or a big time stock holder in corporations, you should ignore the stock markets and start paying attention to the Commodities Markets.