All posts by Hutchins AAron

Born in Deutschland 1965, hometown was Bütthart, parents were not U.S. government employees. However, when father was tricked into joining the U.S. Air Force Civil Service, in 1969, with the promise that we could remain in Germany, we were promptly shipped off to Iran. Due to one of my Iranian educators being disappeared, along with her husband, by the U.S. ally Shah of Iran's Israeli & U.S. created Savak (for the then official terrorist act of promoting the idea that women can vote), and due to my U.S. citizen mother being placed on Savak's Terrorist Arrest List (for supporting the idea that women should vote, at that time the U.S. ally Shah of Iran did not allow women to vote, now they can) we left Iran for the United States in 1973, literally in the middle of the night. At the U.S. Embassy airbase the CIA operated Gooney Bird (C-47) was so packed with other U.S. citizens fleeing our ally Iran (because the Shah gave the OK to arrest any U.S. citizen for such terrorist acts as promoting the concept of voting) that we were turned away by the Loadmaster and had to take a chance on a civilian flight out of Tehran's airport. My father told me he and my mother had three culture shocks; first when they arrived in Germany as civilians, then after being shipped off to Iran as U.S. government employees, then again returning to the United States as unemployed civilians (because so much had changed in the U.S. while they were gone, their only news source was the U.S. Armed Forces Radio & Television Service which heavily censored information about the home front). Since I graduated high school in 1982 I've worked for U.S. government contractors and state & local government agencies (in California), convenience store manager in California, retail/property management in Georgia, California and Idaho. Spent the 1990s in the TV news business producing number one rated local news programs in California, Arizona and Idaho. 14+ years with California and Idaho Army National Guard and the U.S. Air Force. Obtained a BA degree in International Studies from Idaho State University at the age of 42. Unemployed since 2015, so don't tell me the economy has recovered.
Business/Economics, International, U.S.

I told you, “Watch the Commodities Market”, more bad signs of inflation

The Commodities Market “…is sending us the mother of all price signals. The prices of all important commodities except oil declined for 100 years until 2002, by an average of 70%. From 2002 until now, this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than occurred during World War II.”-Jeremy Grantham, GMO LLC

I recently wrote a post that advised people to stop paying attention to stock markets, and start watching commodities markets.  Jeremy Grantham’s research shows why.

According to Grantham, commodities prices (oil, gas, food, clothes, metals, etc) have been going up for the last eight years, big time.  The Federal Reserve has been downplaying inflation, until recently, but Grantham’s research shows inflation has been with us for a while.  He also claims the last eight years has seen the biggest jump in commodities prices since World War 2 (see, wars are not good for the economy, unless you become the world’s arms dealer and can stay out of any actually fighting).

Grantham says the rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has also affected commodities, possibly permanently: “I believe that we are in the midst of one of the giant inflection points in economic history. The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value.”

Grantham explains why everyone should pay attention to commodities, rather than stocks: “…stock prices and they can be, often are, psychologically flakey. But commodities are made and bought by serious professionals for whom today’s price is life and death.”

Grantham says commodities are truly affected by supply and demand, so, with the booming economies of the BRICS, and the ever growing and expanding War on Terror, all of which increase demand for limited supplies, viola, long term inflation!

“We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.”-Jeremy Grantham, GMO LLC

Business/Economics, U.S.

Federal Reserve admits inflation is a problem, new jobs could make it worse

Despite years of denial, the Federal Reserve ( a privately run bank) is now saying inflation is a concern: “If we are going to have success in creating a long-run sustainable recovery with lots of job growth, we have to keep inflation under control.”-Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve Chairman

The problem is so bad that the Federal Reserve is worried that job growth could actually make things worse: “It is not clear that we can get substantial improvements in payrolls without some additional inflation risk.”

Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke had been saying for months that inflation isn’t that much of a problem.  Now Bernanke is saying that the best way to create jobs is to keep prices down.  In other words, fighting inflation is now the main focus, jobs will come later.  As part of the fight on inflation, the Federal Reserve has decided to keep the interest rates it charges financial institutions low/unchanged.

Business/Economics, U.S.

Unemployment up, spending way down, blame it on the inflation the government denies is happening

Job analysts were shocked Thursday, April 28, when the weekly first time unemployment claims jumped by 25,000.

“This is a major disappointment because it’s another move in the wrong direction. This is more than just a misstep for the job market. It’s a signal that the robust job growth we’ve seen recently is poised to lose momentum.”-Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo

Total number of initial jobless claims jumped to 429,000 in the week ended April 23, analysts were expecting it to drop to 390,000.

The government is reporting that overall unemployment numbers show a drop in unemployment, but, more and more analyst think that’s because unemployed people have simply exhausted the time limit for unemployment benefits, NOT because they found work.

“We can’t be certain it’s a positive trend yet. The Labor Department doesn’t specify whether these people are rolling off their benefits or if they’ve found jobs.”–Tim Quinlan, Wells Fargo

Another factor is that each state has its own limits on unemployment benefits, so the federal reporting is not accurate state by state. For healthy improvement in the job market  the economy needs to add between 150,000 and 200,000 jobs every month, which it has not been doing.

Add to the jobs loss shock, the GDP shock.  The U.S. Commerce Department reported Thursday, April 28, that Gross Domestic Product percentages fell to 1.8% (it’s funny, some media reports are calling it an increase, maybe compared to last April).  At the end of 2010 GDP was at 3.1%, so April’s numbers are definitely a drop.

The Department of Commerce is blaming the drop on decreased consumer spending, due to, guess what, inflation.  The drop shocked analyst who were expecting GDP to hit 4.3%.

“Undoubtedly, consumers are cutting discretionary spending to compensate for rising food and energy prices.”-Jim Baird, Plante Moran Financial Advisors

Retail prices were up 3.8% from a year earlier.  Add to that the slow housing market, decreasing government domestic spending (even though the government continues to spend money outside the country), and even bad weather are taking a toll on any “recovery”.

 

 

Business/Economics, U.S.

WalMart says; What Economic Recovery?

“Purchases are really dropping off by the end of the month even more than last year. This end-of-month [purchases] cycle is growing to be a concern.”-Mike Duke, CEO WalMart

WalMart executives are doubting claims of an economic recovery, because their sales are down.

Most WalMart shoppers are low income workers who live paycheck to paycheck.  CEO Mike Duke said because of inflation (which official government agencies deny is happening) their customers are running out of money, faster than ever.

Duke admitted that WalMart had to raise prices on produce, but tried to compensate by lowering prices on electronics, but you can’t eat electronics.

WalMart officials are now going to try to lower all their prices, in the hopes it might boost their falling sales.

 

U.S.

U.S. on its way to Tornado record

At least 300 people have been reported killed from Wednesday’s (April 27) tornado strikes that hit the south east.

The latest tornadic outburst hit six states, the unofficial number is 151 tornadoes.  TV news weathermen are saying it could be the most devastating one day tornado event in U.S. history.

They also think when the official numbers come in, it will reveal record numbers of tornadoes for the month of April.  Officially the worst tornado outbreak in U.S. history occurred in April 1974.  148 twisters hit 13 states in one day, according to the National Weather Service.

So far, unofficially it looks like April 2011 might have a record of 300 tornadoes.

International, Opinion, U.S.

U.S. to violate sanctions against Libya, will sell Libyan oil

The U.S. Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is going to use a loophole in the sanctions against Libya, to oversee oil sales by the rebels.

That means the U.S. will be directly involved in all oil deals will the Libyan rebels.

This is on top of the $25 million in aid Obama is sending, and on top of another $45 million Obama already sent.  Just remember that Obama, and Congress, wants to cut your taxpayer funded domestic programs, while sending your money to Libya.

International, U.S.

Former Ronald Reagan official says this is all about World War 3

“Washington is all for invading Libya and is putting more and more pressure to intervene in Syria because we want to… clear China and Russia out of the Mediterranean.”

“Those two countries are just in the way of American hegemony in the Mediterranean and certainly the Americans do not want a powerful Russian fleet stationed there and they certainly don’t want China drawing energy resources.”

“Once Russia and China come to the conclusion that the Americans simply cannot be dealt with in any rational way and are determined to somehow subdue them and do them damage, all kinds of escalations can result. This is the real danger and we’re risking a major war.” Dr. Paul Craig Roberts, former Assistant Secretary of the Treasury under President Ronald Reagan, and former editor of the Wall Street Journal

International, U.S.

Afghan pilot kills U.S. troops, financial troubles might be the cause

“Suddenly, in the middle of the meeting, shooting started. After the shooting started, we saw a number of Afghan army officers and soldiers running out of the building. Some were even throwing themselves out of the windows to get away.”-Colonel Bahader, Afghan Air Corps spokesman

An Afghan pilot shot and killed eight U.S. troops and one U.S. contractor.   Witnesses say the shooting happened after an argument between the pilot and the troops.  The pilot was also killed. Five Afghan soldiers were wounded.

The pilot was a 20 year veteran of the Afghan government forces, and part of a unit that undergoes strict screening for loyalty.  So far no word on what the argument was about.  The brother of the pilot thinks the shooting was a result of stress aggravated by financial problems: “He was 48 years old. He served his country for years. He loved his people and his country. He had no link with Taliban or al-Qaeda. He was under economic pressures and recently he sold his house. He was going through a very difficult period of time in his life.”-Dr. Mohammad Hassan Sahibi, brother of the shooter