Recently I saw a emergency preparedness public service announcement (PSA) on TV, it was specifically warning about a major earthquake, using the 1989 Loma Prieta (San Francisco bay area) earthquake as an example.

The latest Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) PSA is part of a new series called The Day Before.  Past PSAs were more general in their warnings, why would FEMA now issue a PSA so specific?

Several reports have come out this year, from federal Department of Homeland Security agencies, as well as state agencies, which discuss major earthquakes and tsunamis, including the 1989 Loma Prieta quake.  They also reveal a concern about how such things are predicted. As a result many state and local governments (from Virginia to California) have been asked to better prepare for another similar quake.

A July 2012 report by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, called Spectral Damping Scaling Factors for Shallow Crustal Earthquakes in Active Tectonic Regions, basically says that current ground motion measurement formulas used to predict earthquakes are not accurate, specifically when it comes to shallow quakes (California has a lot of those, on a weekly basis).  Of course they’ve recommended a new formula.

In June 2012, a TsuInfo Alert (Tsunami Information Alert) was presented by Washington State Department of Natural Resources.  It concerns the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which affects the North American west coast from northern California up to British Columbia.

The report quotes one scientist who has concerns about how PSAs should be used to prepare the public: “There is no one flyer, no one commercial that’s
going to reach all of these audiences. They all have to be engaged individually, and they have to be approached with something that shows what’s in it for them.”-John Schelling, Washington State Emergency Management Division

The June TsuInfo Alert was packed with warnings about the underestimated effects that earthquakes have in generating tsunamis, not just on the west coast of North America, but including Hawaii and the Gulf of Mexico.  The overriding advice for the public is, as one official from New Zealand was quoted: “….don’t wait around, head for higher ground!”-Fred Mecoy, Emergency Preparedness
Manager, Wellington

Officials from the U.S. state of Oregon suggested three basic rules for surviving after a major earthquake/tsunami: “…one can survive three minutes without oxygen, three hours without shelter, three days without water, and three weeks without food.” 

Don’t forget hypothermia (part of the “shelter” rule), especially if your dragged out to sea.  Many of the tsunami deaths in the March 2011 disasters in Japan were the result of hypothermia, not drowning!

In February I predicted 2012 would be a busy year for earthquakes, specifically around the Pacific Ring of Fire.   I count the number of 6.5 magnitude+ quakes, reported by the U.S. Geological Survey as Significant Earthquakes, and so far for 2012 there’ve been plenty.

I count at least 31 6.5+ quakes from 01 January 2012 to 05 September 2012, all  of them around the Pacific Ring of Fire!

I counted 13 Significant Earthquakes between 5 and 6.4 magnitude, all around the Pacific Ring of Fire (including some tectonic plates directly in contact with Pacific Ring plates).

When compared to 2011, 31 6.5+ quakes doesn’t seem out of the norm. I counted about 34 such quakes for 2011 (on the USGS Significant list). But remember, 2011 was the year of the great disasters in Japan. Seven of those are quakes and/or aftershocks of the 11 March 2011 Great East Japan disasters (and I only counted up till 05 September).

For Significant quakes between 5 and 6.4 magnitude, I counted only four.

For 2011 there was a total of 38 Significant Earthquakes, from 01 January to 05 September.  For 2012 there have been a total of 44 Significant Earthquakes, six more than 2011 during the same time period.

So, while the number of 6.5+ quakes for 2012 are slightly lower than 2011, the number of quakes between 5 and 6.4 are higher (USGS does state that their lists are to be considered “incomplete”).  The Gregorian/Western/Christian calender year of 2012 isn’t over, yet.