Tag Archives: markets

Business/Economics, International, U.S.

Commodities crashing? More signs that there is no economic recovery

The cost of living in the U.S. rose at its fastest pace since December 2009 in the year ended in March, the same month when Chinese consumer prices rose by the most since 2008.-Bloomberg report

Rising commodity prices can bring inflation.  Commodity prices go up when there is an expected higher demand than supply (or speculators playing the market).  Today, May 5, commodity prices are falling.

Some people blame an increase in the value of the U.S. dollar, but has it really gone up that much? When the U.S. dollar is up, it makes commodities that much more expensive on the world market, because commodities are traded in U.S. dollars: “The common denominator for all the commodities selling today is the strength of the dollar.”-Bayram Dincer, LGT Capital Management Ltd

Others are pointing out that commodity traders are realizing that the world’s economy is still bad, and that the average person can’t afford to pay higher prices.  That means demand will go down.

If you buy commodities (oil, gas, metals, food stuffs, etc) why bid higher when there’s a good change you can’t sell it on the retail market?  Some analysts think this will be the crash of the commodities (which is a good thing for us little guys): “This could be one of the most severe corrections that we’ve seen over the last year. If things get really bad, we could possibly retrace half of the rally of the past six to nine months.”-Sean Corrigan, Diapason Commodities Management SA

How about the fact that a little known company, Glencore, who turns out to have a lot of say in the commodities market, has told their clients to be “underweight” when it came to commodities.  Glencore expects prices to actually go up in the next 12 months.  Being “underweight” means to sell off your investments, so maybe what we’re seeing is an intentional, and temporary, sell off.  A sell off would drive prices down.

 

Idaho, International

Food Prices Up, Crop Yields Down

27 September 2010

Signs of a coming food crisis are everywhere. Most notably at the source, the farms that grow the basic crops. Here on the east side of Idaho, farmers had to deal with a spring that was too cool too long, resulting in crops being planted weeks late, and then a short summer (www.noaanews.noaa.gov) (www.kidk.com).

It’s not just Idaho, but many of the crop growing states in the U.S. are experiencing lower yields, and you can blame the weather. Any type of extreme weather will affect crops (sciencepolicy.colorado.edu).  In Idaho it’s too cool & too dry. In other parts of the United States it’s too wet (just look at all the flooding in the southern states), or too hot & dry. And it’s not just the U.S.; Canada & Mexico, South America, Eurasia & Africa as well as Australia, are all dealing with the adverse affects of weird weather on their crops. Pakistan can kiss most of their crop production goodbye after the incredible floods they experienced. Russia is loosing crops due to record heat & fires (www.voanews.com) (rt.com) (rt.com). Just in the past couple of days flooding in Nigeria has destroyed 240 acres of farmland (www.cnn.com).

The result is that overall, globally, less product is heading towards the markets, which means higher commodity prices paid for those crops (Law of Supply & Demand). This is good for farmers who can still produce big crop yields, as farmers in Colorado are finding out (www.agweek.com), but it’s bad for the average consumer. Coffee retailers have finally started passing on the higher costs they’re paying for the beans (starbucks.tekgroup.com). This will only add to the specter of inflation, a three pronged attack caused by governments printing too much money, precious metal prices blasting off and food prices soaring.

Here’s what has happened to wheat commodity prices: In March 2010 Hard Red Winter Wheat was at a value of 191.07,  by August 2010 it hit a value of 246.35 (www.indexmundi.com).  Not all commodities have experienced such a big increase, a few have actually dropped. But, there is a trend of reduced availability & increased cost, so much so that the UN held an emergency meeting to discuss the issue (www.guardian.co.uk). Some UN officials blame inexperienced commodity speculators for the increases in prices. One example of that is that it looks like the December 2010 Corn futures were “overbought” (Idaho Grain Market Alert 9.23.10). This is a double whammy for the average consumer; not only will some foods become limited but some food will be too expensive. So the coming food crisis may probably be more about people not being able to buy the food, than it’s limited availability.

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