No, not the hair style!
“A well-behaved epidemic with build-up, peak, and fade out phases will be bell shaped….”–Deciphering Global Epidemics: Analytical Approaches to the Disease Records, 1998
“A wide epidemic burst forth suddenly and swept the country in one month.”–Journal of the Missouri State Medical Association, Volume 21, 1924
“Only the natural interplay of transmission factors would determine when it would fade out…… ……Once the epidemic had burst upon the population….”–Agents of Apocalypse: Epidemic Disease in the Colonial Philippines, 1995
“Stochastic [random] effects may cause fade-out of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak.”–WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations, 2009. Note that ‘stochastic’ is a mathematical word that means ‘random’, in other words epidemiologists don’t really know why diseases suddenly stop sickening or killing people.
Epidemic burst fade-out describes the life-cycle of a new (novel) pathogen, usually a virus. It’s normal; a big bang at the beginning with people wondering where the hell it came from, then panic as it ravages the human hosts, then suddenly, without explanation, it’s gone.
CoViD-19 is not a disease, it is a pathogen. Disease is the result of a pathogen infecting a host (victim) when the environmental conditions favor the pathogen.
Pathogen=Bacterium, virus, or other microorganism that can cause disease.
For many old pathogens epidemiologists know, because of studying past disease outbreaks, what are the environmental conditions that favor those pathogens. When you are dealing with a novel (new) pathogen there is no way to know the perfect environmental conditions for it to strike, because there is no way to know that a novel pathogen exists. But even more amazing is that epidemiologists don’t understand why pathogens suddenly halt their disease causing rampages: “Some key outstanding questions remain unanswered, but we may discover the answers within the scope of current research studies. With those answers, we’ll not only inform disease prevention and control strategies, but we’ll also be able to shed light on our basic understanding of organismal evolution.”-Sarah McDonald, Virginia Tech Carilion Research Institute
One important environmental factor that humans should be able to control (but don’t) is the level of physical and mental stress a potential host is experiencing. Disease outbreaks (burst) hit the big cities/metro areas first and hardest. So many people living so close together is enough to push the stress levels sky-high. Stress is not just negative, there is such a thing as positive stress. Anything that pushes your emotional system to a negative or positive extreme is stress. Many extroverted people love the big cities because of the physical closeness to other people, but pathogens also love the metro-closeness of humans. Metro areas are giant petri dishes creating the perfect environment for a pathogen to burst forth. (don’t forget that ever since the stress inducing Industrial Revolution there’s been a rapid acceleration of pathogens, also see The effects of industrialisation – Causes of illness and disease)
Perhaps staying calm, not getting excited or upset, is the best defense against pathogens. Like they said in the movie Airplane:
Arrogant humans think they are the ones who make diseases go away, through vaccines, treatments, social distancing, godly cleanliness, isolationism, as demonstrated by these news media articles:
How South Korea flattened the curve
Hong Kong has flattened the curve but can it stay the course?
EPIDEMIC BURST FADE OUT: NEW FLU KILLING DOGS AND CATS IN METRO AREAS!
National Guard engineers in Riverside deploying to assist with the construction of federal ‘medical facilities’ (camps?) on the Channel Islands Air National Guard Station, 25MAR2020.
National Guard deliver state Department of Public Health’s portable beds with linens to mobile hospitals, 25MAR2020.
Long lines waiting to get into the Hard Rock Stadium for CoViD-19 testing, 24MAR2020.
National Guard and the state Department of Health screening passengers from out-of-state at the Orlando Airport, 25MAR2020.
Florida National Guard works with state Department of Health inspectors at Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood Airport, 25MAR2020.
At Jacksonville Airport, Florida National Guard assist the state Department of Health in screening passengers from New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut, 25MAR2020.
National Guard personnel undergo daily medical checks.
This is the state Emergency Operations Center in Boise. As of 25MAR2020, the emergency alert level is at Level 2, the governor of Idaho ordered all non-essential business to shutdown, and residents to ‘shelter-in-place’.
National Guard assist with food distribution at the Greenmount Recreation Center in Baltimore, 24MAR2020.
National Guard provides transportation service to silly-vilians, 17MAR2020.
Setting up 250 cots at the Stan Spirou Field House at Southern New Hampshire University, 23MAR2020.
CoViD-19 testing site at Kean University, 25MAR2020.
Long lines waiting for testing at Bergen Community College, 24MAR2020.
National Guard using their Lakota helicopters to fly CoViD-19 ‘observation’ missions.
Off-loading medical supplies CoViD-19 Mobile Testing Center at the South Beach Behavioral Center, Staten Island, 19MAR2020.
Warehouse ops in in the Raleigh-Durham area, 23MAR2020.
National Guard making home deliveries of food in the Toledo area, 25MAR2020.
24MAR2020, the state Military Department preps for CoViD-19 ops.
Assembling a triage tent for the University of Vermont Medical Center Emergency Room, 24MAR2020.
Providing security for local and federal government offices, 24MAR2020.
National Guard hand out boxes of food, along with the Greater Greenbrier Long Term Recovery Committee, in Lewisburg, 25MAR2020.
U.S. Air Force (USAF) CoViD-19 screenings at Ramstein Medical Clinic, Ramstein Air Base, 19MAR2020.
U.S. Army medics prep for another day of CoViD-19, Hohenfels, 18MAR2020.
Employees of the Miesau Army Depot Child Development Center disenfect the now shuttered daycare center, 20MAR2020.
Employees of the U.S. Army Garrison Rheinland-Pfalz S6 (computer geeks) report being swamped with requests for laptops after U.S. Army personnel were ordered to ‘telework’.
Despite Italy being hit hard by CoViD-19, infrastructure work must still be done. USAF civil engineers replace a fire hydrant at Aviano Air Base, 23MAR2020.
Commander Fleet Activities Yokosuka (CFAY) Security Department conducts CoVid-19 checks at the gate, 25MAR2020. 
Vending machines on Misawa Air Base get disinfected, 24MAR2020.
U.S. Army Soldier on Camp Carroll has the fit of his respirator tested during CoViD-19 response training, 24MAR2020.
Going into battle?
This is how the U.S. Army mops floors in CoViD infected Korea.
Using CBRNE vehicle decontamination procedures to deal with CoViD-19.
Central Arkansas Veterans Healthcare System is actively screening for CoViD-19 (just to be clear, the VA is separate from the Department of Defense).
Drive-thru meds delivery at Luke Air Force Base, 23MAR2020.
CoViD-19 testing is not painless, Luke AFB, 23MAR2020.
After loading up with CoViD-19 ammo, the USNS Mercy finally sailed out of San Diego on its CoViD-19 mission, 23MAR2020.
CoViD-19 screening aboard USS Bonhomme Richard (LHD 6).
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Sacramento District employee inspects a facility in Santa Clara, 23MAR2020, as potential use for Alternate Care Facility (ACF, aka quarantine/isolation camp). The order to search for potential CoViD ‘camps’ came from FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency).
After a Marine on Marine Corps Air Station Miramar tested positive for CoVid-19, the post office was disinfected and marked-off for proper social distancing, 23MAR2020.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) technical survey team confer with a U.S. Public Health Service officer about the potential of using the Hawaii Convention Center as a FEMA ordered Alternate Care Facility (ACF, aka quarantine/isolation camp).
Marine Corps Base Hawaii’s Kaneohe Bay Branch Health Clinic implements CoViD-19 protections.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Chicago District have been actively assessing potential sites for Alternate Care Facility (ACF, aka quarantine/isolation camp).
CoVid-19 screenings outside the Keesler Medical Center at Keesler Air Force Base, 23MAR2020.
Marines returning from overseas now undergoing CoViD-19 screening at Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point.
Volunteers on Grand Forks Air Force Base with free food for grade school students now unable to go to school due to CoViD-19 shutdowns.
Tobyhanna Army Depot employee performs maintenance on a much needed ventilator.
Maintenance on an infusion pump.
Airmen working the Ross Clinic’s pharmacy, on Goodfellow Air Force Base, using Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). So far no cases of CoViD infection on the base.
Goodfellow AFB has also switched to curb-side pharmacy ops only.
New recruits arriving at Lackland AFB for basic training have a new lesson to learn; social distancing.
Florida National Guard operates the mass-testing site at Hard Rock Stadium.
Louisiana National Guard preps Bridge City volunteer firefighters on how to help run a mass-testing site.
Maryland National Guard load medical supplies and equipment at the Maryland Strategic National Stockpile location.
People lined up for testing by Pennsylvania National Guard, at Temple University’s Ambler Campus.
Rhode Island National Guard work the CoViD-19 hotline.
Somewhere in the Philippine Sea a U.S. Navy Hospital Corpsman loads an ABI StepOne Plus RT-PCR machine with samples of potential CoViD-19 aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN 71), 19MAR2020.
U.S. Defense Logistics Agency’s (DLA) Germersheim Central Distribution Center begin loading pallets of semi-perishable goods on to delivery trucks, 17MAR2020.
Germersheim Central Distribution Center delivers supplies to 33 commissaries, 26 U.S. Embassies and four Navy Exchange marts across Europe and Southwest Asia.
18MAR2020, Wiesbaden High School administrators hand out lap-top computers to students as they switch to online classes only.
U.S. Army CoViD-19 instructions posted at a photo shop in Caserma Ederle, Vicenza, 16MAR2020.
Half-a-million U.S. bound CoViD-19 testing kits were loaded onto a Tennessee National Guard C-17 at the U.S. Air Force’s Aviano Air Base. Shipments of test kits made by Copan Diagnostics, in Italy, began on 14MAR2020, through the U.S. Defense Threat Reduction Agency.
U.S. Department of Defense Education Activity teachers and administrators on the U.S. Air Force’s Osan Air Base get a CoViD-19 update, 20MAR2020. Students are now taking classes online.
Peterson Air Force Base conducting CoViD-19 screenings, 20MAR2020.
The U.S. Navy’s Branch Health Clinic Makalapa conducting CoViD-19 screenings.
Nellis Air Force Base, home to the massive Red Flag aerial wargames, conducting CoViD-19 screenings at Mike O’Callaghan Military Medical Center.
One of many CoViD-19 signs at the Niagara Falls Air Reserve Station.
U.S. Marines and Navy personnel prep Camp Lejeune for CoViD-19 screenings, 19MAR2020.
Crew member onboard USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) conducts CoViD-19 disinfecting ops while the ship awaits maintenance at Bremerton.
Arkansas National Guard work the CoViD-19 test lines at the University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, 20MAR2020.
California National Guard activated for Operation CoViD-19. Personnel check-out vehicle mounted radios at the Roseville Armory, 18MAR2020.
Florida National Guard personnel prep to administer CoViD-19 tests at the Community Based Testing Site, C.B. Smith Park, 20MAR2020.
Hawaii National Guard conduct CoViD-19 response planning, 18MAR2020.
Louisiana National Guard CoViD-19 testing at Louis Armstrong Park, New Orleans, 20MAR2020.
Members of the Maryland National Guard report for duty after being activated, 16MAR2020. More than 2-thousand were called-up or given early-warning notices for call-up! Any veteran can tell you what they are carrying. Maryland National Guard also assisted with transporting passengers from one of the infected Princess Cruise ships on 17MAR2020.
Maryland National Guard personnel set-up emergency triage tents outside Adventist HealthCare White Oak Medical Center in Silver Spring, 19MAR2020.
Activated New Jersey National Guard personnel are screened for infections after reporting for duty, 19MAR2020.
New Jersey National Guard assists with operations at the CoViD-19 Community-Based Testing Site at Bergen Community College in Paramus, 20MAR2020.
New Jersey National Guard transported protective clothing from Hall’s Warehouse Corporation to the CoViD-19 Community-Based Testing Site at Bergen Community College.
New York National Guard operate Staten Island CoViD-19 testing site, note the ‘Hot Zone’ sign in red.
Stony Brook, New York, CoViD-19 testing site, 18MAR2020.
New York National Guard clean toys at a daycare facility in Scarsdale, 16MAR2020.
New York National Guard take calls at the CoViD-19 Hotline call center in Hawthorne, 16MAR2020.
Oregon National Guard sets-up tents outside of the Oregon Veterans’ Home (OVH) in Lebanon, 17MAR2020. The tents will be used to test the more than 2-hundred employees working at the OVH.
Oregon National Guard create the Oregon Medical Station (OMS) at the Oregon State Fairgrounds, 19MAR2020. It will be used to house 250 people from nursing homes.
Puerto Rico National Guard conducting CoViD-19 testing at Luis Muñoz Marín International Airport.
Half a million CoViD-19 testing supplies were shipped from Italian suppliers on Tennessee National Guard C-17 Globemaster-3 transports to the Tennessee Air National Guard base in Memphis.
The supplies were then loaded on FedEx trucks, 19MAR2020.
West Virginia National Guard takes calls at the CoViD-19 hotline.
Somewhere at sea, a Hospital Corpsman with the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet tests for diseases using a BioFire Film Array. The hi-tech machine can test for just short of 30 diseases at the same time. The pic was taken aboard the USS Blue Ridge (LCC 19), 14MAR2020.
Medical supplies being loaded onto USNS Mercy (T-AH 19) in San Diego, California, 20MAR2020.
Infected people could be delivered to USNS Mercy via MH-60S Sea Hawk helicopters.
Mercy is one of two hospital ships owned and operated by Military Sealift Command, and operates in the Pacific Ocean.
Apparently they’re expecting to drink a lot of Red Bull?
The other hospital ship is the USNS Comfort (T-AH 20), which normally operates along the Atlantic coast, including providing taxpayer funded medical services to people in Central & South America, and the Caribbean.
A Ejército Mexicano medic, assigned to the USNS Comfort, helps a boy with a severely swollen head in Haiti, November 2019.
Throngs of Haitians line-up for help from the USNS Comfort, November 2019. Will the same thing happen at U.S. ports?
Coming for you? A view from inside a MH-60S Sea Hawk assigned to USNS Comfort.
U.S. and Colombian militaries joined with silly-vilian organizations to conduct the Exercise Vita humanitarian response training.
