“So will there be a war or not? Yes, there will be, but only in two cases: if Belarus suffers a direct aggression, if a hot war is unleashed against our Belarus. We will stand united as one – even those who don’t want to – to defend our land and our homeland. And the second possibility, when a war may happen and Belarus will take part in it: if our ally Russia suffers a direct attack, if such aggression is committed against the Russian Federation. The grounds for that are our allied agreements.”-Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus, quoted by TASS Russian News Agency
A BMP based engineer vehicle disembarks a rail-car in Belarus, 19JAN2022. Photo via Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Since 19JAN2022, Russian forces (Eastern Military District ground and air units, and Pacific Fleet ground units) began arriving in the Republic of Belarus, which is just north of Ukraine. The official reason is to ‘inspect’ Belarusian forces for readiness, which is expected to take until the end of February. Russian officials say it is in compliance with the Vienna Document of 2011.
Russian Defense Ministry video of BMP-2, trucks, BMP engineer vehicle being off-loaded in Belarus, 19JAN2022:
Part of the ‘inspection’ will include a wargame called Union Courage 2022, conducted from February 10th to 20th. The premise of the wargame is an invasion by U.S./NATO.
S-400 anti-aircraft system. Photo via Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
On 21JAN2022, Russia’s Eastern Military District announced that two divisions of S-400 Triumph anti-aircraft systems were on their way to Belarus. The S-400 system consists of several types of vehicles. Video of load-up on rail-cars:
This is Russian Defense Ministry video, recorded on 25JAN2022, showing the arrival of the self propelled artillery gun known as 2S3 Akatsiya:
Su-35S of the Eastern Military District deployed to Belarus, 26JAN2022. Photo via Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Russian Defense Ministry video of Sukhoi 35S ‘multi-role’ aircraft deploying to Belarus, 26JAN2022:
Su-35S aircraft of the Eastern Military District arrive in Belarus, 26-27JAN2022. Photo via Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.
Russian Defense Ministry video of Sukhoi 35S ‘multi-role’ aircraft arriving in Belarus:
Russian Defense Ministry video from 28JAN2022, more trains loaded with Russian vehicles arrive in Belarus:
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