The Commodities Market “…is sending us the mother of all price signals. The prices of all important commodities except oil declined for 100 years until 2002, by an average of 70%. From 2002 until now, this entire decline was erased by a bigger price surge than occurred during World War II.”-Jeremy Grantham, GMO LLC

I recently wrote a post that advised people to stop paying attention to stock markets, and start watching commodities markets.  Jeremy Grantham’s research shows why.

According to Grantham, commodities prices (oil, gas, food, clothes, metals, etc) have been going up for the last eight years, big time.  The Federal Reserve has been downplaying inflation, until recently, but Grantham’s research shows inflation has been with us for a while.  He also claims the last eight years has seen the biggest jump in commodities prices since World War 2 (see, wars are not good for the economy, unless you become the world’s arms dealer and can stay out of any actually fighting).

Grantham says the rise of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) has also affected commodities, possibly permanently: “I believe that we are in the midst of one of the giant inflection points in economic history. The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value.”

Grantham explains why everyone should pay attention to commodities, rather than stocks: “…stock prices and they can be, often are, psychologically flakey. But commodities are made and bought by serious professionals for whom today’s price is life and death.”

Grantham says commodities are truly affected by supply and demand, so, with the booming economies of the BRICS, and the ever growing and expanding War on Terror, all of which increase demand for limited supplies, viola, long term inflation!

“We all need to adjust our behavior to this new environment. It would help if we did it quickly.”-Jeremy Grantham, GMO LLC