Unleaded gasoline is traded on the commodity market.  That’s the price you need to watch.  Oil prices only affect gas prices indirectly.  Yes, as oil prices go up so will eventually gas prices, but for a direct cause watch refined unleaded gas prices (if you use Diesel watch Diesel futures prices).

Oil and gas are traded in the commodities markets as “futures”.  That because they are being bought in advance.  Example: Today’s unleaded gas “futures”, being sold in the commodities market, is for May “deliveries”.  So today’s “market” price of gas is actually for gas that will be sold at gas stations in the month of May.

What is today’s market price for gas? As of April 20, the closing price was $3.25 per gallon.  That price is not paid for by the gas station you get your gas from (and evil “speculators” looking to make fast profits).  It’s the price paid by the companies who supply it to the gas stations.  Of course they need to make a profit, so they’re going to charge the gas stations more.  This is why gas station owners, especially the independents, says they make only a few cents profit on every gallon.

Now, to explain how you can predict next month’s gas prices.

On April 18, the average “retail” price of gas at the pump, in the United States, was $3.84.   The April “futures” price was, on March 21, $2.98 per gallon.  That’s almost a full dollar difference.  You can see that’s not much of a profit split between the gas stations, and the gas suppliers.  But you can also predict how much we’re going to be paying in May.  It’s not good.

Current May “futures” are around $3.25 per gallon.  Add about a dollar for profit and you can see that average “retail” price at the pump, in May, is going to be around $4.25.  Ain’t no trick to it, just stop paying attention to the stock markets, and start paying attention to commodity markets.  What ever is the “future” price of gas that day, just add about a dollar to it to estimate what you’ll be paying at the pump in the next month.  This also applies to Diesel prices.  Also, if you live in the evil state of California, your prices are going to be much higher, due to federal, outrageous state, and even outrageous local gas taxes.  You might as well add at least two dollars onto the commodity market price of gas.