When Japan got hit by the massive quake/tsunami, and then the nuclear power plant disaster, world oil prices dropped. By a lot.
Prior to the Japan event, on March 10th, Brent crude oil closed at $115.60 per barrel. U.S. light sweet crude closed at $104.25. Oil prices had been going up, and the “Libyan crisis” was blamed. “…mainly fueled by regime-toppling instability in the Middle East and North Africa.” -CNN/Money
March 11th, the Japan event and immediately oil prices began falling. Brent crude fell to $113.67, U.S. crude $101.16. By March 15th Brent crude had fallen to $108.52, U.S. crude $97.18.
From March 10th to March 15th Brent crude prices dropped by $7.10, U.S. crude dropped by $7.07.
Then, suddenly, the United Nations announced it had passed a resolution authorizing any military action necessary to get rid of Gaddafi (an historic resolution by the way, it’s NOT a no fly zone). This seemed to come out of no where. What happened to oil prices? Immediately oil price shot up: March 16th Brent crude closed at $110.62, U.S. crude $97.98. March 17th: Brent crude $114.90, U.S. crude $101.42. “The Middle East unrest outweighed concerns about radiation from a Japanese nuclear plant…” -Bloomberg
Another evidence of war mongering by speculators is that oil prices fell when Gaddafi announced a ceasefire. March 18th (ceasefire announced) Brent crude closed $113.90, U.S. crude $101.07.
I speculate that British Brent crude prices are more sensitive because the British, along with the French, have a big stake in gaining control of Libya’s eastern oil fields. After all, who got the biggest oil contract in Iraq? BP (British Petroleum).